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墨尔本将成为澳洲最大城市 机会多多

据2010年12月26日《Sunday Herald Sun》报道,一名首席经济学家预测,截止2035年,墨尔本将成为澳洲最大城市。

经济学家Brian Haratsis表示,在未来25年内,墨尔本就将赶超悉尼,成为澳洲第一大城市。

Haratsis既是一名未来学家,又是一名经济学家,他在近期的预测中还指出,包括Geelong,Bendigo,Ballarat,Shepparton,Mildura以及Latrobe Valley在内的地区中心也将发展壮大。

近期已经成功出版《澳洲2050》的Haratsis表示,然而如今,相比之下,无论是在人口增长还是经济财富的累积上,墨尔本的发展跨度堪称其中之最。

他还称:“不得不说,悉尼正在日益衰退,这种情况还将继续恶化。悉尼之所以沦落,正是由于它对信息科技IT以及金融业的依赖。而这两者在国际竞争力的冲击下正在面临垮台的悲剧。与此同时,墨尔本和维多利亚将全面开花,日益兴盛起来。这主要归功于在货运及物流,教育以及医疗卫生行业等关键领域的迅速发展。”

 

MELBOURNE is set to become Australia's biggest city, according to a leading economist.

The Victorian capital will steal the title from Sydney within 25 years if Brian Haratsis's predictions are correct.

In his latest forecasts, the futurist and economist also suggests big growth in regional centres including Geelong, Bendigo, Ballarat, Shepparton, Mildura and even the Latrobe Valley.

But Melbourne would expand most, in terms of population as well as economic wealth, Mr Haratsis said.

"Sydney is dying now, and will continue to die as a service sector provider," said Mr Haratsis, who recently published Australia 2050.

In a wide-ranging interview, he said:

* Halving the number of politicians and doubling pay of those remaining.

* Replacing the Federal Government with three regional infrastructure providers.

* Raising GST from 10 to 12 per cent, using the extra 2 per cent to help fund the regional bodies.

* Discarding the National Broadband Network and using the $42 billion to develop methods of water harvesting.

* Solving our water problems before tackling climate change, and

* Funding our future sporting success with a lottery similar to Britain's Future2.

Mr Haratsis expects Melbourne's population to have reached between 5-5.5 million by 2035, when it will have become bigger than Sydney. The gap, initially, will be between 100,000 and 200,000, but will widen.

He said Sydney's decline is caused by its economic reliance on IT and finance, both of which face crushing international competition.

Melbourne and Victoria, however, will flourish because of their success as service providers in three key areas freight and logistics, education, and health.

He said he believed Victoria would increase its share of the national freight sector from 30 per cent to 50 per cent by 2030.

He said a new port at Hastings, high-speed freight and passenger rail links between Sydney and Melbourne and new commercial "freight cities" across Victoria would help Victoria take control of the freight sector.